Reading the PitchGuessr Heatmap: Predict the Next Pitch

PitchGuessr started as tally marks on a whiteboard across the room (long story). The heatmap is the grown-up version of that whiteboard: every pitch you log goes into a grid, and the grid tells you where this opponent tends to throw in this situation.

The heatmap is simple to look at, but there's a right and a wrong way to read it. This guide covers both — setup first, then the details that make the difference between "that zone is lit up" and "I know what's coming."

Quick start: useful in five minutes

1. Create the opponent. Tap + on the home screen, enter their name, and set their pitcher's handedness. That's all you need to start. Just want to try it? Quick Game skips setup entirely.
2. Optionally set your lineup. Enter each of your batters' position and handedness (or switch hitter) once. PitchGuessr handles the matchup math every time you face that opponent after that.
3. Log every pitch. When a pitch crosses the plate, tap the zone where it went on the 5×5 grid, then pick the result — Ball, Strike, Foul, Hit, Out, and so on. The count advances on its own.
4. Fix mistakes as you go. Undo (↶) removes the last pitch. Long-press the Ball or Strike display to correct the count. If you missed where a pitch went, long-press a zone for quick actions like logging a missed location, an intentional walk, or skipping the batter. A clean dataset beats a big one.
5. Glance before each pitch. The heatmap updates after every pitch you log. Look at it while your opponent is picking their pitch, then get back to the game.

That's it. The app makes no connection to MLB The Show — everything is you tapping what you saw on the TV — so it works in any mode where you're hitting against a person.

The 25 zones

The grid is 5×5: the 9 zones in the middle are the strike zone (a 3×3), and the 16 zones around the edge are ball zones. That outer ring matters. Plenty of opponents live just off the plate when they're ahead, and a tracker that only counts strikes would miss exactly the pitches you most need to lay off.

The grid is drawn from the same view you hit from, so "away from a lefty" is on the left side of the grid and "in on a righty" is also on the left. If that ever feels backwards, find where the batter stands and work from there.

What the colors mean

• White (light gray in the outer ball zones): under 5% — no real signal yet, or a zone they rarely use.
• Light blue to blue: about 5–35%. With 25 zones to share the pitches, this is where most of the action lives, and the deepest blue is usually the zone to sit on.
• Blue shading into yellow: about 35–55% — a strong lean.
• Yellow to orange, then red: 55% and up (red from about 75%) — this opponent goes there most of the time in the current situation.

The single most likely zone also gets a rotating teal gradient border so your eye lands on it first (it holds still if you have Reduce Motion on). I look at that zone, then at its neighbors. A deep-blue zone surrounded by lighter blue is a region, and regions are much more useful to a hitter than a single square.

How much to trust it: the Confidence badge

Colors always look confident. The Confidence badge tells you whether they've earned it. It's based on how many pitches are behind the current prediction, and the bar is lower for Standard (pitches at this exact count and matchup) than for Matchup (pitches in this handedness matchup at any count). With nothing logged yet it reads No Data.

Under the hood PitchGuessr uses Bayesian smoothing, so one pitch in a zone doesn't instantly show up as 100%. That's why early heatmaps look a bit muted — it's on purpose. Most opponents start showing real patterns after 10–15 pitches.

Counts: Standard vs Matchup model

There are two prediction models, and both are free. Tap the model name in the status bar to switch any time during a game.

• Matchup model uses every pitch thrown in the current handedness matchup and ignores the count. Big sample, less specific. This is what you want early in a game.
• Standard model filters to the exact current count and handedness — "what do they throw at 1-2 to a lefty?" Smaller sample, much more precise. It becomes worth using once you've logged a handful of pitches at that count, and the app will suggest switching when you have enough.

Counts are where the real edge lives. An opponent can throw to one zone a lot overall and almost never go there at 2-0. Mental tracking catches "they like low-away." It doesn't catch "they go low-away 70% of the time at 0-2 to lefties." That's what the Standard model is for.

If you see No Data, there aren't enough pitches for the current count or matchup yet. The app falls back to a broader filter when it can (for example, any count instead of this count), so keep logging.

Handedness splits

Most players pitch differently to lefties and righties, so PitchGuessr tracks each matchup separately. If you set up your lineup, the right split is chosen for you as each batter comes up, and switch hitters are resolved to the correct side based on the pitcher. You're never looking at right-handed-hitter data with a lefty at the plate.

The practical consequence: your first couple of left-handed hitters may see a cooler, less-confident map than your righties if your lineup is mostly right-handed. That's accurate, not a bug. Lean on the Matchup model for the thinner side until it fills in.

Turning the heatmap into a plate approach

1. Hitter's counts (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1): sit on the hottest strike zone. Pre-position your PCI there and be ready to attack anything in that region. If the hot zone is a ball zone, that tells you to take.
2. Even counts: look at the region, not the square. Lean your PCI toward the warm cluster and stay ready to adjust.
3. Pitcher's counts (0-2, 1-2): look at the ball zones. If the heat is just off the plate, that's their chase spot. Knowing where the chase pitch lives is how you lay off it. Protect the edges of the zone; let the pitches finish where the map says they will.
4. Check In-Zone / Out-Zone %. An opponent who throws mostly out of the zone is betting you'll chase. Make them come to you.
5. Use the pitch sequence overlay. It shows every pitch of the current at-bat in solid blue and previous at-bats as hatched circles. That's how you spot setups like "always goes up and in after two pitches away."

If you want the pitching side of this — why an opponent might go up and in before burying something low and away — I wrote a guide on pitch sequencing examples that walks through the most common patterns. Knowing the playbook makes the heatmap easier to read.

What Pro adds

Everything above is in the free tier (Lite is the same features without ads), and so are the three Pitch Recall Modes — Count Recall, Dual Signal, and Ghost Trail — for seeing past pitches at the same count or the previous at-bat's full sequence. Pro adds a scouting layer on top of the heatmap:

• Zone Splits — vertical (UP/MID/LOW) and horizontal (IN/CTR/AWY) breakdowns.
• Strike Rate Panel — a 4×3 grid of strike tendency for every count.
• Auto Insights — a Predictability Score (0–100) for how readable a pitcher's locations are, plus Situational Tendencies: whether they attack the zone or try to get you to chase, by count, on the first pitch, and with two strikes.
• Recency Window — base predictions on only the last 10 or 25 pitches to catch a pitcher adjusting mid-game. It resets to All on a new game.
• Raw mode — exact unsmoothed percentages, for when you have a big sample.

Common mistakes reading the heatmap

• Trusting a Very Low map. Three pitches is not a tendency. Check the badge first.
• Staying on Matchup all game. Once you have count data, Standard is where the edge is.
• Swinging at a hot ball zone. Hot means likely, not hittable. If the heat is below the zone at 0-2, the right move is usually to lay off.
• Logging guesses. If you didn't see where it went, log a missed location or skip the at-bat. Bad data is worse than no data.
• Forgetting they adjust. If you've been killing their go-to pitch, expect it to change. That's what the Recency Window is for, or just watch the sequence overlay for the last few at-bats.

Still have questions about setup or tiers? The PitchGuessr FAQ covers most of them.