How is PitchGuessr different from just mentally tracking pitches myself?

Mental tracking works for broad tendencies but breaks down at the count level. Remembering that someone goes low-away a lot is helpful — but knowing they go low-away 70% of the time specifically at 0-2 with a left-handed batter is actionable intelligence. PitchGuessr does the per-count, per-matchup math automatically and surfaces it visually in real time, so you're not tracking numbers in your head while also trying to play the game.

Why use PitchGuessr instead of the built-in MLB The Show pitch tracking?

The built-in tracker records what was thrown — that's it. No predictions, no zone heatmap, no count-specific filtering. To get anything beyond a basic pitch log you have to pause the game and flip through the settings menus. In online play that's a real problem: pausing has time limits, and your opponent is waiting every time you do it. The in-game bat overlay is basic and interrupts the flow of the game for both you and your opponent.

What's the difference between the two prediction models in PitchGuessr?

Standard mode filters to pitches at the exact current count and handedness matchup — much more precise, and best once count-specific data has accumulated. Matchup mode uses all pitches for the current handedness combination, ignoring count — great at game start when count data is sparse. Both models are free. Tap the model name in the status bar to switch instantly during a game.

What's the difference between Smooth and Raw mode?

Smooth (default, Free) uses Bayesian smoothing to prevent extreme predictions from small samples — if 1 of 2 pitches went to a zone, Smooth shows roughly 38% rather than 50%, pulling predictions toward the average for more stable early-game results. Raw (Pro) shows exact percentages with no smoothing — 1 of 2 pitches = exactly 50%. Useful for experienced players who understand small-sample limitations. Toggle instantly by tapping the green Smooth or red Raw label in the status bar.

When should I switch from Matchup to Standard mode?

The app nudges you — when you have 5 or more pitches at the current count and matchup combination, a suggestion appears to switch to Standard. You can also switch manually anytime by tapping the model name in the status bar. Having 5 pitches at one count doesn't mean Standard is ready for every count — check the confidence indicator on the heatmap to see how reliable predictions are for the current situation.

Is my opponent data private?

Completely. All pitch data is stored on your device — PitchGuessr doesn't run a server, doesn't collect stats, and has no way to see your opponent history. The optional iCloud sync feature (Pro) uses your own Apple iCloud account, encrypted end-to-end by Apple. PitchGuessr stores opponent names and pitch locations only — no gameplay recordings, no screen captures, no MLB or Sony data.

What does PitchGuessr Pro include?

Pro ($9.99/year) adds advanced prediction tools: Zone Splits (vertical and horizontal strike zone breakdowns), Strike Rate Panel (count-by-count strike tendency grid), Pitch Recall Modes (count recall, dual signal, ghost trail), Raw mode (unsmoothed percentages), collapsible stat panels, opponent editing, and iCloud sync across devices. All tiers now include unlimited at-bat tracking. Free is ad-supported, Lite ($2.99/year) removes ads, and Pro adds the advanced analytics.

Where can I download PitchGuessr?

PitchGuessr is available on the App Store for iPhone and iPad (iOS 17+). Download it at https://apps.apple.com/us/app/pitchguessr/id6758683308 — free with ads, ad-free Lite $2.99/yr, Pro $9.99/yr. Questions? Email support@retroghostlabs.com.

PitchGuessr | MLB The Show Pitch Prediction & Scouting App

Name: PitchGuessr
Author: RetroGhostLabs

What You Get

Everything you need to read your opponent's pitching tendencies and step into the box with a real edge.

🔥

Live Prediction Heatmap

Zone probabilities update after every pitch logged. Darker zones mean higher likelihood. At a glance, you'll know exactly where the ball is most likely to go before the pitch leaves their hand.

🧠

Two Prediction Models — Both Free

Standard mode filters by exact count and handedness ("what do they throw at 2-2 vs a lefty?"). Matchup mode uses all pitches by handedness — best early before count data builds up. Tap the model name in the status bar to switch instantly during a game.

⚾

Pitch Sequence Overlay

See your opponent's exact pitch-by-pitch sequence overlaid on the strike zone. Color-coded by at-bat. Current at-bat in solid blue, previous at-bats in hatched circles. Spot repeat sequences instantly.

📊

Count & Matchup Filtering

Predictions automatically filter by the exact current count and batter handedness. Switch hitters resolved to the correct hand based on pitcher. No manual setup — it just works as you play.

📱

iPhone & iPad Optimized

Portrait and landscape layouts both fully supported. Tap ⤢ or pinch out past max size to enter full screen mode — the strike zone fills your entire display with floating Status and Config sheets. Pinch to resize the grid between 0.7× and 1.2×.

🔒

Privacy First — No Account

All opponent data lives on your device. No login, no cloud account, no data sent anywhere. Optional iCloud sync (Pro) uses your own Apple account. We never see your data. Period.

How It Works

Up and running in under a minute. Useful from the very first pitch.

Create Your Opponent

Add any online opponent with a name and their pitcher's handedness. Optionally configure your batter lineup — enter each batter's position and handedness (or switch hitter) once, and PitchGuessr handles the matchup math automatically every time you face them. Setup takes about 30 seconds.

PitchGuessr game setup screen — enter opponent name and pitcher handedness

Log Every Pitch in Real Time

As you play, tap the zone on the 5×5 grid where each pitch was thrown — 9 strike zones and 16 ball zones cover the entire plate area. Select the outcome (Ball, Strike, Foul, Hit, Out, etc.) and the count auto-advances. Long press a zone for quick actions: intentional walk, skip batter, or log a missed location without a zone.

PitchGuessr pitch logging screen — tap the zone, pick the outcome

Read the Heatmap — Step In Knowing

PitchGuessr builds a live prediction model as data accumulates. Confidence climbs from Very Low → Low → Medium → High as pitches are logged. The zones with the most heat are where your opponent goes most often at the current count. When the app suggests switching to Standard mode, you have enough count-specific data to get even more precise predictions.

PitchGuessr live heatmap building during an active at-bat

How Predictions Work

Two models, one goal: tell you where the ball is going before the pitcher releases it.

Key Numbers

Zones Tracked 25 9 strike + 16 ball

Standard Mode Unlocks 5+ pitches at any count

Confidence Levels 4 Very Low → High

Smoothing Method Bayesian accurate at low sample sizes

Raw Mode Pro exact unsmoothed %

At game start you have zero data — Matchup mode gives you handedness-based predictions immediately. As counts accumulate data, Standard mode gives you count-specific predictions like "they throw low-outside 60% of the time at 0-2." Tap the model name in the status bar to switch anytime. Bayesian smoothing ensures early predictions don't wildly overfit to a single pitch. Pro users can toggle to Raw mode to see exact unsmoothed percentages.

The Two Models

Standard

Standard Mode

Filters to pitches at the exact current count and handedness matchup — "what do they throw at 1-2 vs a lefty?" Most precise predictions. Best once you have count-specific data. Available Free and Pro. Tap the model name in-game to switch.

Matchup

Matchup Mode

Uses all pitches thrown to the current handedness combination (e.g., all LHH vs RHP), ignoring count. Best at game start when count-specific data is sparse. Available Free and Pro.

Coming Soon

Weighted Recent

Last 3 at-bats count 3× vs older history. Useful mid-series when your opponent starts adjusting — recent behavior outweighs their long-term tendencies. Coming in a future update.

Why It Matters

Online opponents are creatures of habit — even when they think they're not.

📈

Patterns Emerge Fast

Most MLB The Show players have tendencies they don't even notice — going fastball on 0-0, low-away on 2-strike counts. PitchGuessr surfaces these patterns after just 10–15 pitches.

🎯

Count Changes Everything

An opponent who loves zone 6 overall might almost never go there at 2-0. Standard mode tells you what they actually do at the exact count you're in — not just their average behavior.

🔄

Adjustments Happen Mid-Game

If your opponent figures out you're sitting on their go-to pitch, they'll adjust. Weighted Recent mode detects this shift — it down-weights old data and amplifies what they're doing right now.

👀

The Sequence Tells a Story

Pitch sequence mode shows you their setup-to-putaway progression at-bat by at-bat. Spot that they always go high-tight after two balls away and you'll be ready for it when it matters most.

🧮

Handedness Changes the Picture

Most pitchers throw differently to lefties vs righties. PitchGuessr tracks both matchups independently and auto-resolves switch hitters — so you're never looking at the wrong data set.

⚡

Carry History Across Games

Data persists between sessions. Play the same opponent in a rematch and start with all their historical tendencies already loaded. The longer the rivalry, the sharper the predictions.

Coming Soon

v1.2 shipped Zone Splits, Strike Rate Panel, Pitch Recall Modes, Opponent Management, and more. Here's what's next.

📐
Adaptive Layout & Customizable Panels — moveable, resizable panels in landscape mode. Arrange your strike zone, stats, and controls exactly how you want them.
✏️
Advanced Pitch Editing (Pro) — edit any logged pitch with smart cascade updates. Changing a zone or outcome auto-corrects dependent counts throughout the session.
📊
Advanced Analytics Dashboard (Pro) — post-game analysis charts with session-over-session trends and deeper statistical breakdowns.
🕐
Weighted Recent Model — last 3 at-bats count 3x vs older history. Detects mid-series adjustments automatically.
📈
In%/Out% Trend Indicator — shows whether your opponent is pounding the zone more or less than their session average, with an up/down/flat arrow at a glance.

⚾
Lineup Position Models — top, middle, and bottom of the order tend to see different pitch mixes. Predictions tuned by lineup slot.
🤖
Additional Preset Models — 5+ curated prediction models tuned for specific play styles and game situations.
🔍
Cluster Detection — automatically surface hidden pitch patterns like "they go sinker every time after a ball high."
📅
Multi-Session Trends — analyze how an opponent evolves across multiple games and sessions over time.
🌐
Web Companion (Exploring) — a web-based companion where Pro subscribers could view full opponent histories, pitch breakdowns, and session stats from any browser.

Free $0 · ad-supported	Lite $2.99/year · no ads	Pro $9.99/year
Unlimited at-bat tracking	Everything in Free	Everything in Lite
Full heatmap predictions	No ads	Zone Splits (vertical & horizontal)
Both prediction models		Strike Rate Panel (count-by-count)
Confidence indicator		Pitch Recall Modes (3 modes)
In-Zone / Out-Zone %		Raw mode (unsmoothed %)
Pitch sequence overlay		Collapsible stat panels
Opponent management		Opponent editing (name, notes)
Banner & interstitial ads		iCloud sync across devices

Common Questions

No. PitchGuessr makes no connection to the game. All data entry is manual — you tap the zone as you watch each pitch happen on your TV. The app never touches game servers, game accounts, or any MLB or Sony systems.
The heatmap starts building on pitch 1. By 5–10 pitches you'll see tendencies forming. By 15–20 pitches at a specific count, the Standard Model gives you real signal. The Confidence badge tells you exactly how much to trust the current prediction — so you're never flying blind.
Standard Model predicts based on the exact current count AND handedness matchup. Most specific — best once you've built up count-specific data.

Matchup Model ignores the count and shows overall tendencies for the handedness matchup. Broader sample — best at the start of a game.

Both models are free. Tap the model name in the status bar to switch instantly while you're tracking.
No. Every pitch you log is saved to your opponent's profile. The next time you face the same opponent, PitchGuessr picks up exactly where you left off — data accumulates across every session, making predictions more accurate the more you play against the same person.
Yes — starting with v1.2, the free tier is ad-supported with banner and interstitial ads. In exchange, free users now get unlimited at-bat tracking (previously capped at 9 batters). All core features — heatmap, both prediction models, confidence tracking — are included free. If you want the same experience without ads, Lite removes them for just $2.99/year.
Mental tracking works for broad tendencies but breaks down at the count level. Remembering that someone goes low-away a lot is helpful — but knowing they go low-away 70% of the time specifically at 0-2 with a left-handed batter is actionable intelligence. PitchGuessr does the per-count, per-matchup math automatically and surfaces it visually in real time, so you're not tracking numbers in your head while also trying to play the game.
The built-in tracker records what was thrown — that's it. No predictions, no zone heatmap, no count-specific filtering. To get anything beyond a basic pitch log you have to pause the game and flip through the settings menus. In online play that's a real problem: pausing has time limits, and your opponent is sitting there waiting every time you do it.

PitchGuessr lives on your phone or iPad beside you. Tap a zone between pitches — two seconds — and the heatmap updates instantly with count-aware predictions. The game never pauses, your opponent never notices, and you're not burning your pause timer to check a log. Just play, glance, decide.
Completely. All pitch data is stored on your device — we don't run a server, we don't collect stats, and we have no way to see your opponent history. The optional iCloud sync feature (Pro) uses your own Apple iCloud account, encrypted end-to-end by Apple. We never see it.
Pro ($9.99/year) unlocks the advanced analytics layer: Zone Splits (vertical and horizontal strike zone breakdowns), Strike Rate Panel (count-by-count strike tendency grid), Pitch Recall Modes (count recall, dual signal, and ghost trail overlays), Raw mode (unsmoothed percentages), collapsible stat panels, opponent name/notes editing, and iCloud sync across devices. All tiers now include unlimited at-bat tracking. The free tier handles the core use case well — Pro adds the deeper scouting tools.

See all FAQs →

Know Where They'll Pitch — Before They Do

Your memory isn't built for this.